Finally, the NFL season is upon us. I've put away my NBA spreadsheets and have been focusing on the NFL. I have a lot of really interesting stuff I've been working on - analyzing the value of field position, the value of special teams play in general, QBE (Quarterback Efficiency Rating), salary analysis, NFL Draft analysis, and looking at how Run vs. Pass (both attempts and success) actually helps score more points. I'm sure a lot of this won't ever get finished, but just trying to give you an idea what I've been working on during my intersport hiatus!
This column is lighter fare - I just pick the NFL games like 10,000 other equally handsome dudes. I've been picking NFL games for quite a while now. I play in family and friend pools and on ESPN's public picking games, and sometimes put money on the games too. I've done pretty well, but you'll have to trust me on that I guess! Right now, the plan is to post my picks here for every game against the spread and ESPN's Eliminator Challenge (or any suicide league where you pick winners and not losers).
The Week 1 Strategy
No one really knows anything going in to week 1. I'm not going to tell you I know more than anyone else, either. The only thing I actually know is that Vegas doesn't know much more than you or me. The lines are set to try to get 50% of the people to bet on each side. What does this mean? Take the dogs!
I'm only half serious, its not that simple (and if it was, Vegas would correct for it). Some teams you actually know are good, some teams you actually know are bad (I'd take Packers -15 at Jacksonville). The biggest part of the equation is the quarterback. There are quarterbacks that you assume will win at least 9 games no matter what, and there are quarterbacks that would need amazing luck and defense to win 8 games. I'll go through my thinking on each of the week 1 games, with a special thought on the underdog quarterback.
Favorite listed first, my pick in italics. Lines from footballlocks.com. Basic format stolen from Bill Simmons. The LVH SuperContest picks I would make if I had $1500 to burn are listed as "LVH Pick." My Eliminator Challenge picks are listed as "EC." Other EC picks I would be comfortable making are labelled accordingly. Finally, the EC Gamble of the Week - a team I am relatively sure will win even though they might not be a great team is listed as the "EC GotW."
Only the rare rookie quarterback can lead their team to a winning season. But this is less a vote of confidence in Weeden than a distrust of the turmoil in Philly. I'll almost als waytake the 9 points in week 1 anyways. (Could Weeden be good? Yeah, I think so.)
I'm shocked this line isn't Buffalo +3. I have no trust in the Jets, despite being a huge fan of the Tebow signing. I wouldn't have done it in New York because of the media crush, but I think dual threat QBs are under-utilized. A thought for another time. Also, the Bills are usually unstoppable until November anyways, right? Easy pick. (Could Fitzy be good? Yeah, he is good.)
I think the Saints could be great this year. But Washington could win 9 games, right? We get a touchdown, the Saints are a huge unknown with Bountygate, and don't know the Redskins are horrible. I'll take that week 1, thank you very much. (Could RG3 be good? I doubt he is this year - but I wouldn't be shocked.)
If we know any team is good, its Green Bay and New England. I am not hating on Tennessee here, but 5.5 isn't enough. (Could Locker be good? Yes.)
Minnesota could double Jacksonville's wins, 6-3. The Vikings could also go 8-8 and it would be a story but not a huge story. Jacksonville, if they won 8 games, would be a sensational story. (I'd like to donate this space to you - JAX under 5.5 wins is easy money for those of you with such inclinations.)
Love Houston. No confidence in Tannehill. One of the leading stories leading into the draft this year was that Miami couldn't burn a top 10 pick on a player that couldn't start in NFL for a couple of years - he only has one full season of starting QB in college. All that being said, couldn't Houston win 30-21 with a late TD for Miami in garbage time? I just can't give 12 points in week 1. (I don't think Tannehill will play well this year. I'm sure he's very gifted and could have a great career, but there is no reason to think the Dolphins win this year.)
Will Detroit win a bunch of games this year? I think so, they are one of my wildcard teams. Will St. Louis? Maybe! We don't know. Bradford might be great, and Fisher could add 4 wins alone. In week 1, Detroit doesn't deserve 7.5 points over this team. (Could Bradford be good? The Rams kept him over RG3 and weren't ridiculed.)
So 2.5 points buys me Matt Ryan (an excellent regular season QB) over Matt Cassel? As much as I like Jamaal Charles and Arrowhead, I have no faith in Romeo Crennel even with the points week 1. (Could Cassel be good? I think he is a starting-caliber QB in the NFL, but I would be shocked if he did much better than his 2010 93 passer rating.)
We think Green Bay is good. We think the Niners are good. Who is more likely to regress, Rodgers or Smith? (Smith could improve this year as he gets to spend more time in a single system, but chances are we have seen who he is already.)
I like Freeman and Newton, but I think betting against Newton before we see what he will do in his Sophomore season is a mistake. (Could Freeman be good? Yes, he could be great.)
If I'm buying into any pre-games-played hype, its the Seahawks. I love Wilson and hear great things about Seattle. More importantly, I would bet that Arizona is starting Matt Barkley in 12 months. (No. You don't get a vote of confidence when you have a battle of mediocrity for a starting spot.)
Pittsburgh has been a model of consistency, and Manning is an unknown commodity week 1. I'd take Steelers -3.5. (Yeah, Roethlisberger could have a decent career.)
A classic Unknown vs. Unknown game giving almost a touchdown. Andy Dalton could be great. To put his rookie campaign in perspective, it was similar to some of Favre's early seasons statistically. I don't see Baltimore regressing a lot, but I don't think we know enough to give them this many points. (I jumped the gun again. Dalton has a very high ceiling.)
I think the Raiders are on their way up. I think the Chargers are usually great in the summer. If I avoided a single game this week, it would be this one. (Palmer and Rivers could be and have been pro-bowl caliber players, don't be silly.)
So, to summarize: I'm taking 9 underdogs, but I'm avoiding the heavy favorites. I picked the Giants Wednesday night, but I would have made a point to agree with the now-popular sentiment that Romo is pretty good. I'll chalk that one up as a loss for me, but a win for the "we don't know jack" week one philosophy.
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